HOUSE EDGE
Charting the house edge in 2008 World Series future books (the bigger the house edge, the worse it is for gamblers):
Casino
House edge
Las Vegas Hilton
28 percent
Cal Neva 32 percent
Palms
35 percent
Venetian
36 percent
Wynn
37 percent
South Point
47 percent
Plaza
47 percent
Coast/Boyd 49 percent
Harrah’s/Caesars
51 percent
Station Casinos
51 percent
Leroy’s
51 percent
52 percent
All other factors being equal, baseball bettors looking to invest a few dollars on their team to win the World Series this year will find the most value at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.
They can expect the least bang for their buck at MGM Mirage properties, according to a survey by the Sun of the World Series championship odds at 12 major Las Vegas sports books.
We calculated the theoretical hold percentage — or house edge — of the casinos’ World Series future books, or the listings of odds on each major league team to win the 2008 title.
Contrary to what outsiders or nongamblers might think, there is no single “Las Vegas line” on a team’s odds to win the World Series. Take the reigning champion Boston Red Sox, who are favored to repeat. They can be found at odds of 5-2 at the Plaza, but also at odds of 5-1 at Boyd/Coast properties — a 100 percent better return for gamblers.
House edge expresses, as a percentage, the amount of money a sports book is expected to keep after paying out winning wagers.
The lower the house edge, the more favorable it is for bettors. The higher the house edge, the worse it is for bettors. (See “Determining house edge” for the formula online at lasvegassun.com.)
House edge is a useful tool because it provides an overall picture of how attractive a future book’s odds are, from top to bottom. A casino could offer extremely low odds on a particular team, but still give gamblers a fair shake by raising the prices on other teams. A high house edge, however, indicates a casino is offering poor odds throughout its future book.
The Las Vegas Hilton is employing a 28 percent theoretical hold percentage in its World Series future book, the best in the city from a gambler’s perspective. Hilton oddsmakers manage the future book aggressively, routinely raising prices on some teams whenever the odds fall on others to maintain competitive prices across the board. One highlight is the Los Angeles Angels at 14-1, nearly 300 percent better than the 5-1 found at several other properties in town.
Although it’s a minor consideration, it doesn’t hurt that Hilton oddsmakers do not cap long shots at 150-1 or so, as some of their competitors do. They’re offering 300-1 on a couple of teams and 500-1 on the Orioles.
The Cal Neva sports books also scored well in the survey, with a house edge of 32 percent. Based in Reno, Cal Neva has several Southern Nevada outlets, including the Tuscany, Binion’s and the Four Queens. It earned a good grade by offering a lot of solid value on midpriced teams in the range of 30-1 to 50-1.
The Palms, the Venetian and Wynn Las Vegas also performed well (see accompanying chart) before the rest of the scores drifted into mediocrity. The house edges of seven major sports books were bunched in the lackluster range of 47 percent to 52 percent, with MGM Mirage bringing up the rear.
MGM Mirage was hampered in the survey partly because its oddsmakers drastically lowered the odds on a handful of teams but failed to raise the prices on other teams enough to compensate.
For example, the Tigers are listed at 2.8-1 at MGM Mirage properties (they call it “14-5,” but they can’t fool me), the Cubs at 7-2, the Dodgers at 6-1 and the White Sox at 10-1. At those prices, oddsmakers are essentially announcing they don’t want any more money on those teams. Oblige them.
Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.
Odds to win 2008 World Series:
(Las Vegas Hilton)
Red Sox
9-2
Mets
5-1
Yankees
6-1
Tigers
6-1
Cubs
7-1
Indians
10-1
Angels
14-1
Phillies
20-1
Dodgers
25-1
Blue Jays
30-1
Padres
30-1
Rockies 30-1
Brewers 25-1
Braves
30-1
30-1
Mariners
35-1
White Sox
40-1
Rays
50-1
Reds
50-1
Twins
60-1
Astros
75-1
Cardinals
75-1
Athletics
100-1
Rangers
100-1
Giants 100-1
Marlins
100-1
Pirates
150-1
Royals 300-1
Nationals
300-1
Orioles
500-1
The skinny: The odds on the Mets dropped to 5-1 after opening at 13-1 shortly after last year’s World Series, largely as a result of New York’s acquisition of left-hander and two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana .. The odds on the Tigers dropped to 6-1 from 9-1 as the former perennial losers appear
to have turned the organization around . The odds on the Cubs dropped to 7-1 from an opener of 13-1. Future-book odds on the Cubs are always short in Las Vegas sports books, but this year bettors’ optimism is grounded in more than just hope the Cubs will mark the 100th anniversary of their last World Series championship with another title .. Among teams whose chances are going the other direction, according to oddsmakers and the betting public, the Athletics’ odds stand at 100-1 after opening at
40-1 — and hitting as high as 200-1 — as untested Oakland figures to be at least a couple of years away from contending . The odds on the Twins rose to 60-1 from 20-1 after the Santana trade .. The odds on the Angels drifted up to 14-1 from an opener
of 9-1 because . well, hmmm, because, ahh, probably because the Mariners look decent in that division — but come to think of it, 14-1 on the Angels looks like a good price .. The odds on the Cardinals rose to 75-1 from 25-1 St. Louis looks like a team in transition after trading Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds and having to deal with some injuries in the starting rotation.
Division championship odds (Palms)
Mets 1-2
Phillies 3-1
Braves
9-2
Marlins
30-1
Nationals 30-1
Cubs
2-3
Brewers
12-5
Cardinals
15-2
Astros
19-2
Reds
8-1
Pirates
35-1
Dodgers
11-10
Rockies 3-1
Diamondbacks
14-5
Padres
4-1
Giants
25-1
Red Sox
5-6
Yankees
even
Blue Jays
17-2
Orioles 50-1
Rays
30-1
Tigers
5-7
Indians
7-5
White Sox
15-2
Twins
9-1
Royals
30-1
Angels
5-9
Mariners 3-2
Athletics
7-1
Rangers
14-1
The skinny: The Santana trade was good for the Mets and bad for division rival Philadelphia, as the odds on the Phillies went to 3-1 from an opener of 9-1 and the price on New York dropped to 1-2 from even money .. The Giants’ offense
looks anemic post-Barry Bonds and so do their betting odds, which have risen to 25-1 from an opener of 8-1 . As the Red Sox and Yankees fight it out for supremacy in the AL East, as usual, the odds on the Blue Jays drifted up to 17-2 from 11-2 ..
Seattle’s odds have come down steadily from an opener of 7-2 to 2-1 to 3-2 as bettors suspect Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez could lead the M’s to the playoffs .. There’s no apparent interest whatsoever in the Marlins (30-1 after opening 8-1), Orioles
(50-1 from 18-1) or Pirates (35-1 from 15-1)
Major league home run champion
(Partial list, top contenders from the Palms)
Prince Fielder
15-2
4-1
17-2
Mark Teixeira
16-1
11-1
15-1
Matt Holliday
10-1
Alfonso Soriano 11-1
12-1
10-1
Miguel Cabrera
18-1
Travis Hafner
20-1
Over/under 2008
regular-season home runs
(Las Vegas Hilton odds, a sampling of many players on the board)
Ryan Howard
44.5
Alex Rodriguez
43.5
Prince Fielder
39.5
Adam Dunn
38.5
Mark Teixeira
35.5
David Ortiz
34.5
Matt Holliday
34.5
Albert Pujols
34.5
Miguel Cabrera
34.5
The skinny: A-Rod led the majors last season with 54 home runs, a result that paid off bettors at 12-1. He beat out 2007 favorites Howard (6-1), Pujols (7-1) and Ortiz (8-1). This year the odds on Rodriguez dropped to 3-1 from an opener of 4-1 .. Fielder was runner-up with 50 homers, although his odds drifted up to 15-2 from an opener of 9-2 . Bettors don’t expect a drop-off in production from Howard (47 homers last season), driving his odds down to 4-1 from 8-1 .. Pena was
fourth in the majors with 46 homers in 2007, followed by Dunn with 40 . There was a big move in the odds on Ryan Braun of Milwaukee, the NL rookie of the year who finished with 34 homers in only 113 games .. The odds on Alfonso Soriano have also
dropped, from 20-1 to 11-1, as Cubs manager Lou Piniella experiments with his place in the lineup, most recently inserting the former leadoff hitter into the No 5 spot.
Pitcher to have the most wins
(Partial list, top contenders from the Palms)
10-1
11-2
Chien-Ming Wang 5-1
Johan Santana
13-2
8-1
Felix Hernandez
8-1
Carlos Zambrano
11-1
11-1
14-1
15-1
15-1
15-1
15-1
17-1
Fausto Carmona
17-1
17-1
Erik Bedard
18-1
Over/under 2008
regular-season wins
(Las Vegas Hilton odds, a sampling of many players on the board)
Josh Beckett 17.5
Brandon Webb
16.5
Justin Verlander
16.5
16.5
Chien-Ming Wang 16.5
C.C. Sabathia
15.5
Roy Halladay
15.5
Carlos Zambrano 15.5
Roy Oswalt
15.5
Erik Bedard
15
Daisuke Matsuzaka 15
The skinny: Despite a recent stint on the disabled list, Beckett remains a logical leading contender after leading the majors with 20 wins last season .. Wang (19 wins) and
Verlander (18) also had their odds drop after they each opened at 10-1 . Webb, the 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner, had a rough spring training but his opening odds of 18-1 did look a little high .. Bettors are looking for a breakout season from
Hernandez after he went 14-7 a year ago, driving his odds down to 8-1 from an opener of 20-1 . The most popular (former) long shots to lead the majors are Smoltz, who opened at 75-1, and Billingsley, who opened at 50-1.
Over/under season victories
(Consensus line)
Mets 93.5
Phillies
87.5
Braves
84.5
Nationals
71.5
Marlins 68.5
Cubs
87.5
Brewers 84.5
Reds
79
Cardinals 76.5
Astros
76.5
Pirates 70.5
Dodgers 87
Diamondbacks
86.5
Padres
84.5
Rockies 82.5
Giants
72
Red Sox
94
Yankees
93.5
Blue Jays
85.5
Rays
75
Orioles
66
Tigers
93
Indians
89.5
White Sox
79
Twins
75
Royals
72.5
Angels
91.5
Mariners
85.5
Rangers 76
Athletics 73
The skinny: The rebuilding Orioles, projected as perhaps the worst team in baseball, actually saw an uptick in their season-win total to a consensus line of 66 after opening at 64.5 at the Hilton in February .. The White Sox had a drop in their season-win total as bettors appeared unconvinced they will reverse their fall from grace after winning the 2005 World Series . Also seeing slight drops were the Giants (opening line: 73 wins), Rangers (77) and Nationals (72.5).
Over/under 2008
regular-season saves
(Las Vegas Hilton odds)
39.5
38.5
37.5
36.5
Mariano Rivera 36.5
36.5
35.5
Jose Valverde
32.5
The skinny: Valverde had a major league-best 47 saves for Arizona before being traded to Houston .. Nathan recently signed a four-year, $47 million deal with Minnesota, and the Angels’ Rodriguez could be
pushing for a similar contract He can become a free agent after the 2008 season.
2008 major league regular-season mosts by any player
(Las Vegas Hilton odds, a sampling of major categories)
Home runs 51.5
Stolen bases
63.5
RBIs 146.5
Wins
20.5
Losses
18
Strikeouts 240.5
The skinny: Each figure is similar to the one posted before the 2007 season, when perhaps the most surprising result came in stolen bases, which went well “over” the total when Jose Reyes of the Mets finished with 78 steals.
(All odds are subject to change or being taken off the betting board at any time.)
Copyright 2008  Las Vegas Sun
